Trump's Shadow Over NATO: How One Man Shapes a 32-Nation Summit

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Donald Trump speaks with NATO leaders during the 2025 summit in The Hague.

Posted by DailyBrill Teams

As world leaders gather in The Hague for what should be a united NATO summit, it’s clear that all eyes — and much of the agenda — revolve around one figure: Donald Trump. Despite the presence of 32 nations and numerous partner countries, the former and potentially future U.S. president has shaped the structure, tone, and expectations of the event long before it began.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, eager to keep the alliance from fracturing, has strategically prepared a "short and focused" summit. The two-day event will contain just three hours of formal discussions and a trimmed five-paragraph summit statement. This design is not just for efficiency but widely believed to be tailored to Trump's preferences, especially his aversion to long, bureaucratic meetings.

A Stage Set for One

Rutte's main diplomatic offering is a major commitment from European allies to significantly increase defense spending. While Trump has long criticized NATO for placing too much burden on the United States, this summit may provide him with the symbolic 'win' he demands — and a headline he can take home.

Yet, beyond defense budgets lies a deeper worry: NATO’s internal divisions are growing. While Trump continues to push for 5% of GDP from members on defense, many nations still struggle to reach even the 2% goal set a decade ago. Spain and even the UK have hesitated to commit fully, signaling potential resistance to Trump’s pressure.

Avoiding the Real Elephant: Russia

Ironically, the summit seems set to skirt its most pressing topic — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s defensive posture. There’s growing concern that raising this subject may create visible divides, particularly with Trump, who has expressed skepticism toward America's role in Ukraine and has previously praised Russian leadership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to the summit dinner, but not the formal discussions. NATO’s unity is being preserved by carefully avoiding the topics most likely to break it.

Defense Spending: Real Shift or Creative Math?

Rutte has proposed a flexible formula: 3.5% of GDP in core defense spending, plus 1.5% in defense-related infrastructure and support. Critics argue the vague definitions open the door to creative accounting rather than genuine readiness. But with Russia seen as a potential aggressor within five years, the Alliance’s credibility may depend on how real this rearmament becomes.

A Summit Measured by One Man’s Reaction

This year’s NATO summit will not be remembered for its length, its detailed planning, or even its collective decisions. It will be remembered for how successfully it catered to Trump — and whether that appeasement comes at the cost of long-term cohesion and readiness.

The real challenge isn’t about GDP figures, but whether NATO can remain a united, effective alliance in the face of growing internal and external pressures.

🗣️ What’s Your Take?

Do you think NATO is adapting or just surviving? Will Trump’s influence help or hinder European defense? Drop your thoughts below — we’d love to hear from you!

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